Summer 2011 saw seven players move directly between the Premier League’s six biggest clubs.
In fact, all of the clubs in question (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham) either sold or bought at least one player to or from another at a total cost of £41.45million – £43.36million with Spurs’ loan fee for then-City’s Emmanuel Adebayor included.
But Robin van Persie’s infamous switch from Arsenal to Manchester United the following summer, a deal that essentially handed the Red Devils the title for Sir Alex Ferguson’s last season in charge, proved to be the cut-off point. From then on, the big six’s interactions in the transfer market have resembled more a cold war; competing for the same targets from other clubs, commodities by proxy, rather than directly dealing with each other.
Between 2013 and 2016, one transfer window saw no players move between the big six at all, two transfer windows saw no fees shift hands and from the total outlay of £82million during that time, 65% of it was spent on Raheem Sterling alone, the only time in those summers a big six club has legitimately ‘pinched’ a key player from another. The rest of the deals involved fringe or ageing players, like Danny Welbeck, Petr Cech, Kolo Toure and Bacary Sagna.
The current transfer window, therefore, is already proving to be a watershed moment amongst the big six. Including Nemanja Matic’s switch from Chelsea to Manchester United, the big six have already spent more obtaining players from their rivals this summer, £83.35million, than they have over the last four. Of course, prices this summer belong in a different category to the years gone past. But even so, four players have moved between the big six already and two have moved for transfer fees – the highest numbers on both fronts since that exceptionally active summer of 2011.
Clearly, the thinking of the big six has changed since last summer, when not a single player left for a rival. Perhaps memories of the effect van Persie’s 2012 move had on not only the next title winners, Manchester United, but also his former club Arsenal who couldn’t sign a forward of similar quality until Alexis Sanchez arrived two years later, have seeped out of the psyche.
Perhaps it’s an indictment on the sheer disparity between the big six and Everton and the rest of the league last season, which produced a 15-point gap between seventh and eighth, combined with the incredible inflation of valuations.
Why spend £50million on Gylfi Sigurdsson, a player who theoretically failed the last time he was at the top end of the Premier League with Spurs, when you could sign someone who has succeeded at that level recently, such as Kyle Walker or Nemanja Matic, for a similar sum? Likewise, the number of clubs outside the Premier League who can match the valuations of big six players in a market moving further and further away from reality is continually decreasing. It would be deliciously ironic if the big six are now in a situation where they feel they can only rely on other big six clubs to guarantee the quality and money they need.
Yet, amid what looks set to be one of the most competitive title races of all time, let alone the subsequent battle for a place in the top four, it feels like the clubs who’ve sanctioned departures to fellow big six members this summer – namely Chelsea with Matic and Spurs with Walker – are playing an incredibly dangerous game. The margins are now so fine in the Premier League and selling to a divisional rival creates a swing both ways, taking away from one squad while enhancing another. The impact is far bigger than simply adding quality from lesser down the table or abroad.
In fact, from the last eight players to move between big six clubs for transfer fees, the buying club finished higher than the selling club in the subsequent season on seven occasions – the only exception being Adebayor’s move from the Etihad Stadium to White Hart Lane, which was actually a permanent move after a successful loan deal.
Amid unconvincing transfer windows that have seen Spurs fail to sign a single player thus far and Chelsea essentially trade three proven Premier League performers – Diego Costa, Nemanja Matic and John Terry – for three players who’ve never set foot in the English game before – Alvaro Morata, Tiemoue Bakayoko and Antonio Rudiger – that statistic should particularly play on the minds of the respective chairmen and managers.
After all, the two players they’ve let go are perfectly ideal for the clubs who’ve bought them; Walker is the dynamic, buccaneering No.2 Pep Guardiola desperately needed after releasing three full-backs at the start of the summer and Matic completes an incredible engine room at United, alongside Ander Herrera and Paul Pogba, that Mourinho will believe can be the difference in the title race.
In excess of £40million apiece may well be good money for a right-back and an ageing defensive midfielder on paper, but what does that even buy you in return these days? Four-fifths of Gylfi Sigurdsson? Half a Paul Pogba? In current transfer market and in the context of next season’s title race, it’s a drop in the ocean for Chelsea and Tottenham.
With a month of the transfer window still to go, this summer could well trump 2011 for activity between the big six – it’s already seen the most spent on fellow big six players – particularly in terms of deals involving transfer fees. Alexis Sanchez to Manchester City remains an ongoing saga, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s likewise contract situation is sure to garner interest from direct rivals before the window slams shut. There’s also the potential for someone to take advantage of the fringe status players like Luke Shaw and Anthony Martial endure at United.
But much like 2011, the effect those deals have on the table come the end of the season will likely be the cut-off for such activity in future summers. After all, if the buys come good, namely Walker and Matic, the big six will renew their wariness of selling to each other.
On the other hand, if the buys go wrong, the suitors bitten will be reluctant to hand over such sums to direct competitors. Acquiring from and selling to foreign clubs will become the safe tactic once again.